SGC DIP ENGINE

Last Run: May 13, 2026 01:39 PM BST Market: NEUTRAL (VIX 17.9)
Window: 60 days remaining (ends Jul 12, 2026)
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⚠️ DATA QUALITY WARNINGS (39) — click to expand
  • GOOGL: Model $131 vs market $387. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • META: Model $284 vs market $603. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • AMZN: Model $81 vs market $266. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • ASML: Model $362 vs market $1300. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • AVGO: 24% single-day move. Real event OR data corrupted. Included in volatility.
  • AVGO: Model $202 vs market $419. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • VST: 28% single-day move. Real event OR data corrupted. Included in volatility.
  • VST: Model $17 vs market $147. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • CEG: 3 moves over 20% (max 25%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • LDO.MI: Candle data 36 days old (last: 2026-04-07) but current price is FRESH from profile. Proceeding with caution.
  • IGLN.L: No current price — SKIPPED
  • TSLA: 2 moves over 20% (max 23%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • TSLA: Model $19 vs market $433. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • INOD: 3 moves over 20% (max 86%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • PLTR: 2 moves over 20% (max 24%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • PLTR: Model $11 vs market $136. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • AMD: 2 moves over 20% (max 24%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • AMD: Model $52 vs market $448. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • INTC: 3 moves over 20% (max 26%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • INTC: Model $3 vs market $121. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • SNDK: 4 moves over 20% (max 29%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • ENGN: 2 moves over 20% (max 81%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • ENGN: Analyst target $10.83 is 7.5x price. Suspect — using fallback anchor.
  • ENGN: Model $0 vs market $1. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • AIIO: 38 moves over 20% (max 76%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • GDC: 23 moves over 20% (max 128%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • FWRD: 6 moves over 20% (max 43%). Real volatility OR data corrupted. Check quality.
  • HUBS: Model $90 vs market $180. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • CRWD: Model $18 vs market $546. Model broken OR stock overvalued. Using analyst targets.
  • RR.GB: No current price — SKIPPED
  • BARC.GB: No current price — SKIPPED
  • NOTE: Growth stocks often show DCF warnings (AI premium vs traditional model). System uses analyst consensus instead.
  • NOTE: Power sector stocks have binary catalysts (PPA wins, reactor restarts, regulation). Large moves are normal for this role.
  • 3 stock(s) skipped, 31 valid
  • INOD: Vol 195% (>150% limit). Too wild to model — excluded.
  • AIIO: Vol 181% (>150% limit). Too wild to model — excluded.
  • FWRD: Vol 227% (>150% limit). Too wild to model — excluded.
  • ENGN: Anchor $7.05 (MA50) is 4.9x price. Too extreme — using current price instead.
  • GDC: Anchor $3.25 (MA50) is 23.1x price. Too extreme — using current price instead.
ℹ️ How to read Dip / Rally conviction — click to expand

Dip conviction (e.g. 70%): the % of simulated 60-day paths where the stock touched the dip price or lower at SOME point during the window. Used for setting limit buys at expected lows.

Rally conviction (e.g. 60%): the % of simulated paths where the stock touched the rally price or higher at SOME point during the window. Used for setting take-profit alerts.

Why can they add to more than 100%? Both percentages measure OVERLAPPING subsets of the same paths — a single path can both dip deeply and rally high within 60 days. Measurements are independent, not mutually exclusive.

How does ⚠️ regime override work? When the regime classifier flags a stock as MOMENTUM, SQUEEZE_RISK, or BREAKDOWN, the dip target is annotated as "unlikely to fill" because Monte Carlo's historical-volatility assumption isn't valid in those regimes. Trust the regime warning over the dip prediction.

📊 BACKTEST — Hit rate 68% (38/56) — click to expand

Tracks whether past WAIT signals correctly predicted actual dips.

68% Hit Rate (38/56)
+0.1% Avg Error
+6.3% ROI vs Naive

Raise PERCENTILE_TARGET (hit rate 68% above 65% target)

Hit rate by ticker — minimum 3 signals required for ranking

STRONG ≥75% NVDA 100% (5/5) · MSFT 100% (5/5) · META 100% (5/5) · VST 100% (5/5) · MA 100% (3/3) · WM 100% (3/3)
MEDIUM 50-74% CEG 60% (3/5) · GOOGL 50% (2/4)
WEAK <50% AMZN 40% (2/5) · ASML 40% (2/5) · AVGO 40% (2/5) · MU 0% (0/5)
INSUFFICIENT <3 signals CTAS

TODAY'S DEPLOYMENT (May 13)

BUY TODAY (3): WM, CTAS, LIN
WAIT FOR DIP (25): NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, MA, MU, ASML, AVGO, VST, CEG, LDO.MI, TSLA, ADP, V, LLY, WMT, PLTR, AMD, INTC, SNDK, ENGN, GDC, HUBS, CRWD
Stock Signal & Target (today + 60 days) Earnings
CTAS
🟢 BUY RSI 34
$165.42 (today)
⬇️ $161.46 · May 31-Jun 14 (2.4% — immaterial)
⬆️ $173.21 · May 23-Jun 06 (+4.7% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Expected dip only 2.4% — not worth waiting. Buy today.
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $236.50 median (+43.0%)
 2026-07-16 ⚡
LIN
🟢 BUY RSI 53
$503.87 (today)
⬇️ $489.89 · Jun 03-17 (2.8% — immaterial)
⬆️ $525.22 · May 21-Jun 04 (+4.2% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Expected dip only 2.8% — not worth waiting. Buy today.
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $570.00 median (+13.1%); Trend: → stable
 2026-08-07 ⚡
WM
🟢 BUY RSI 39
$217.65 (today)
⬇️ $211.44 · Jun 02-16 (2.9% — immaterial)
⬆️ $229.41 · May 22-Jun 05 (+5.4% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Expected dip only 2.9% — not worth waiting. Buy today.
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $258.00 median (+18.5%)
 2026-07-27 ⚡
GDC
⏳ WAIT RSI 31 📉 BREAKDOWN 75%
$0.14 (today)
⬇️ $0.11 · Jun 04-18 (24.9% — ⚠️ regime override: unlikely to fill)
⬆️ $0.21 · May 21-Jun 04 (+52.5% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 24.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
REGIME: Breakdown — no reversal signal yet, dip-buy invalid until RSI>45 and 20d momentum positive. Drawdown -97.6% + 20d -95.9% + RSI 31 weak
 —
ENGN
⏳ WAIT RSI 22 💎 OVERSOLD 75%
$1.44 (today)
⬇️ $1.17 · likely around earnings (Jun 11) (18.9%)
⬆️ $1.94 · May 23-Jun 06 (+34.9% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 18.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
REGIME: Oversold reversal — high-conviction setup. RSI 22 oversold + drawdown -86.4% + volume 2.2x
└─ Fallback: BUY at $1.28 (11.4% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $4.00 median (+177.8%); Trend: ↓ falling
 2026-06-11 ⚡
HUBS
⏳ WAIT RSI 32 📉 BREAKDOWN 75%
$179.58 (today)
⬇️ $145.71 · Jun 05-19 (18.9% — ⚠️ regime override: unlikely to fill)
⬆️ $234.59 · May 20-Jun 03 (+30.6% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 18.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
REGIME: Breakdown — no reversal signal yet, dip-buy invalid until RSI>45 and 20d momentum positive. Drawdown -39.4% + 20d -13.0% + RSI 32 weak
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $285.00 median (+58.7%); Trend: → stable
 2026-08-05 ⚡
INTC
⏳ WAIT RSI 75
$120.61 (today)
⬇️ $100.66 · Jun 07-21 (16.5%)
⬆️ $148.99 · May 20-Jun 03 (+23.5% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 16.5% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $108.25 (10.3% dip, 80% conviction) May 13-27
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $80.00 median (-33.7%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-07-23 ⚡
SNDK
⏳ WAIT RSI 70
$1452.02 (today)
⬇️ $1241.50 · Jun 06-20 (14.5%)
⬆️ $1792.81 · May 20-Jun 03 (+23.5% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 14.5% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $1323.91 (8.8% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $1250.00 median (-13.9%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-08-13 ⚡
MU
⏳ WAIT RSI 79 🚀 MOMENTUM 80% ✨
$766.58 (today)
⬇️ $661.96 · Jun 12-26 (13.6% — ⚠️ regime override: unlikely to fill)
⬆️ $905.66 · May 21-Jun 04 (+18.1% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 13.6% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
REGIME: Momentum regime — predicted dip unlikely to fill (won't reverse soon). Short interest: 2.25% of float.
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $450.00 median (-41.3%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-06-24 ⚡
AMD
⏳ WAIT RSI 77
$448.29 (today)
⬇️ $389.33 · Jun 06-20 (13.2%)
⬆️ $527.47 · May 19-Jun 02 (+17.7% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Deep 13.2% dip expected (70% conviction). Hold firm. Wait.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $412.50 (8.0% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $422.50 median (-5.8%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-08-04 ⚡
VST
⏳ WAIT RSI 40 📉 BREAKDOWN 75%
$146.87 (today)
⬇️ $133.08 · Jun 06-20 (9.4% — ⚠️ regime override: unlikely to fill)
⬆️ $164.75 · May 20-Jun 03 (+12.2% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 9.4% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
REGIME: Breakdown — no reversal signal yet, dip-buy invalid until RSI>45 and 20d momentum positive. Drawdown -16.9% + 20d -10.4% + RSI 40 weak
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $224.50 median (+52.9%); Trend: ↓ falling
 2026-08-06 ⚡
LDO.MI
⏳ WAIT RSI 41
€54.02 (today)
⬇️ €49.06 · Jun 03-17 (9.2%)
⬆️ €62.88 · May 21-Jun 04 (+16.4% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 9.2% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at €51.03 (5.5% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): €61.20 median (+13.3%); Trend: ↑ rising
 —
META
⏳ WAIT RSI 41
$603.00 (today)
⬇️ $553.76 · Jun 08-22 (8.2%)
⬆️ $661.31 · May 19-Jun 02 (+9.7% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 8.2% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $573.09 (5.0% dip, 80% conviction) May 13-27
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $825.00 median (+36.8%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-29 ⚡
CRWD
⏳ WAIT RSI 77
$546.18 (today)
⬇️ $505.73 · Jun 04-18 (7.4%)
⬆️ $593.17 · May 20-Jun 03 (+8.6% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 7.4% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $521.86 (4.5% dip, 80% conviction) May 13-27
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $522.50 median (-4.3%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-06-03 ⚡
PLTR
⏳ WAIT RSI 44
$136.00 (today)
⬇️ $126.11 · Jun 03-17 (7.3%)
⬆️ $152.12 · May 21-Jun 04 (+11.9% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 7.3% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $130.02 (4.4% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $190.00 median (+39.7%); Trend: → stable
 2026-08-03 ⚡
AVGO
⏳ WAIT RSI 60
$419.30 (today)
⬇️ $388.83 · Jun 01-15 (7.3%)
⬆️ $463.48 · May 23-Jun 06 (+10.5% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 7.3% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $401.51 (4.2% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $450.00 median (+7.3%)
 2026-06-03 ⚡
ASML
⏳ WAIT RSI 56
€1299.95 (today)
⬇️ €1206.59 · Jun 05-19 (7.2%)
⬆️ €1442.80 · May 21-Jun 04 (+11.0% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 7.2% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at €1243.45 (4.3% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): €1474.36 median (+13.4%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-15 ⚡
CEG
⏳ WAIT RSI 45
$293.60 (today)
⬇️ $272.96 · Jun 03-17 (7.0%)
⬆️ $326.91 · May 21-Jun 04 (+11.3% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 7.0% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $281.11 (4.3% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $392.00 median (+33.5%); Trend: → stable
 2026-08-06 ⚡
TSLA
⏳ WAIT RSI 67
$433.45 (today)
⬇️ $403.43 · Jun 07-21 (6.9%)
⬆️ $471.62 · May 19-Jun 02 (+8.8% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 6.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $415.71 (4.1% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $450.00 median (+3.8%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-22 ⚡
LLY
⏳ WAIT RSI 60
$989.87 (today)
⬇️ $923.32 · Jun 05-19 (6.7%)
⬆️ $1089.38 · May 20-Jun 03 (+10.1% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 6.7% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $951.59 (3.9% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $1280.00 median (+29.3%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-08-05 ⚡
NVDA
⏳ WAIT RSI 69
$220.78 (today)
⬇️ $207.57 · Jun 01-15 (6.0%)
⬆️ $239.33 · likely around earnings (May 20) (+8.4% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 6.0% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $212.92 (3.6% dip, 80% conviction) likely around earnings (May 20)
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $275.00 median (+24.6%); Trend: → stable
 2026-05-20 ⚡
GOOGL
⏳ WAIT RSI 70
$387.35 (today)
⬇️ $365.15 · Jun 08-22 (5.7%)
⬆️ $413.07 · May 19-Jun 02 (+6.6% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Strong 5.7% dip expected (70% conviction). Be patient.
└─ Fallback: BUY at $373.86 (3.5% dip, 80% conviction) May 13-27
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $410.00 median (+5.8%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-22 ⚡
ADP
⏳ WAIT RSI 58
$213.81 (today)
⬇️ $203.43 · Jun 04-18 (4.9%)
⬆️ $229.10 · May 21-Jun 04 (+7.2% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 4.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (2.7% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $242.00 median (+13.2%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-07-29 ⚡
V
⏳ WAIT RSI 60
$326.42 (today)
⬇️ $310.98 · Jun 06-20 (4.7%)
⬆️ $347.09 · May 20-Jun 03 (+6.3% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 4.7% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (2.8% dip, 80% conviction) May 12-26
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $385.00 median (+17.9%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-28 ⚡
MSFT
⏳ WAIT RSI 49
$407.77 (today)
⬇️ $389.25 · Jun 03-17 (4.5%)
⬆️ $438.16 · May 21-Jun 04 (+7.5% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 4.5% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (2.6% dip, 80% conviction) May 11-25
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $550.00 median (+34.9%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-29 ⚡
AMZN
⏳ WAIT RSI 64
$265.82 (today)
⬇️ $255.46 · Jun 08-22 (3.9%)
⬆️ $277.96 · May 20-Jun 03 (+4.6% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 3.9% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (2.4% dip, 80% conviction) May 13-27
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $315.00 median (+18.5%); Trend: → stable
 2026-07-30 ⚡
WMT
⏳ WAIT RSI 55
$130.35 (today)
⬇️ $125.45 · Jun 01-15 (3.8%)
⬆️ $136.71 · likely around earnings (May 21) (+4.9% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 3.8% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (2.2% dip, 80% conviction) likely around earnings (May 21)
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $138.50 median (+6.3%); Trend: ↑ rising
 2026-05-21 ⚡
MA
⏳ WAIT RSI 48
$499.81 (today)
⬇️ $483.46 · Jun 02-16 (3.3%)
⬆️ $528.06 · May 22-Jun 05 (+5.7% rally, 60% conviction)
Dip conviction: 70%
Moderate 3.3% dip expected (70% conviction). Worth waiting.
└─ Fallback: BUY NOW (1.9% dip, 80% conviction) May 11-25
🔮 Analyst consensus (12-mo): $657.50 median (+31.5%); Trend: ↓ falling
 2026-07-30 ⚡